So there we have it, another independence referendum is demanded, although let's be honest it's really still the same one because for many pro-independence activists, and most SNP politicians, the campaign never ended. No, they just took a couple of weeks/days/hours/minutes off (delete according to their degree of obsessivenes) to get over losing the first one then decided there was enough of them that they could get away with ignoring what the majority wanted and carrying on as if it didn't happen.
Thus after almost two years of agitating, grievance building and campaign propaganda prior to the referendum, until many Scots were sick to the back teeth of it and the divisons it caused, we were then subjected to another two years of agitating and banging on about it and refusing to accept the decision. Now with brexit having given them the boost of an alleged reason to demand a rerun we are going to be subjected to at least another couple of years of their divisive propaganda as they systematically attempt to demonise Westminster, the Tories (blue red and yellow), leave voters and frankly anyone who disagrees with their goal of independence.
One has to raise an eyebrow at their claims of representing democracy, Mike Russell was on tv last week claiming that it was a matter of democracy granting them yet another referendum, seemingly unaware or uncaring about the contradiction of the SNP demanding a referendum for the sole purpose of overturning the results of two other democratic referendums that didn't go the way they wanted (although let's be honest some of them were no doubt secretly pleased at the way the EU ref went).
However I don't really blame the SNP for doing this, it's in the Party's DNA, it will always use any situation to try and argue for independence so we shouldn't be surprised when they leap on an opportunity to keep it in the news, take steps towards it (demand more powers) or indeed wish to leap off a cliff towards it (demanding a referendum). However while understanding that this is what the party is all about it is surprising to note how reluctant they've been to commit. As I pointed out previously, they were very careful how they worded their manifesto, allowing plenty of wiggle room on what they'd do. Making demands of the UK government that you know will be unworkable and then crying foul when they are (inevitably) rejected or put to one side is a strategy that plays to their advantage. A cynic (i.e. me) would point out that this is the real intention of the SNP, they wish to engineer not independence but an option for independence. Sturgeon and others high up in the SNP know the shape of Scotland's finances, they know the unpalatable consequences of those for an independent Scotland, and they know the very serious consequences of an independent Scotland being in the EU while its biggest partner in trade, people movement and culture is outside of it. On that basis The SNP leaders know that it is probably better to wait, partly in the hope that finances improve and partly to ensure that Scotland winds up outside the EU along with the UK, whereupon it can maintain free trade with UK and work out how to deal with Brussels later, if at all.
I have no doubt that Sturgeon and some of her colleagues would aspire for an independent Scotland to be an EU member, but realistically in the event of a 'hard brexit' we'd be stuffed finding ourselves on the wrong side of a hard trade border with rUK. Thus while it would be arguably be better to wait and see how brexit pans out before deciding if Scotland should be in or out this sensible attitude doesn't really allow for the kind of opprobium and greivance building that they need to fire up support for independence (or to maintain it). The SNP must keep the dream alive but they run the risk of support withering away as events overtake it, thus they have to big up any differences with the UK and paint brexit as a huge disaster (which it may or may not be, but frankly that is almost irrelevant to their strategy) in order to maintain nationalist anger. Having created such a narrative it would appear contradictory to then admit that the most sensible approach is actually to go along with it for a while until we know the outcome, or worse to then have to admit that in the event of a 'hard brexit' (such as no significant trade deal and a lapse to WTO rules or similar) that Scotland's interests are better served outside the EU. The SNP have to avoid the blame for any decision that goes wrong or for completely contradicting themselves, therefore what they must do is kick up a fuss and squeal as we are 'dragged out of the EU' along with the UK. That can then be used as both a reason to argue for independence and an excuse for why an independent Scotland finds itself outside of the EU (even if that situation is the best of the available otions). We've already seen Sturgeon and others such as Russell being less than committal regarding Scottish EU membership at times, you can bet that their enthusiasm for it will wither further if the UK cannot get a good trade deal.
I'm not idealogically opposed to independence, but on a practical level it has little to commend it on the economic front, and neither does Scottish EU membership if the rUK is outside, thus I conclude that independence is currently a bad idea, but independence in order to join a different trade bloc from the rUK is an even worse idea, pretty much the worst of all options. I believe that those at the top of the SNP heirarchy know this and would prefer to wait and see, but unfortunately for them they have a baying mob of supporters and they have painted themselves into a corner, how long can they spin it in the hope of Scotland being better placed without putting themselves in the frame for the blame?... I guess we'll see.
